You have not watched a football game since February. Since then the Dolphins traded Tua Tagovailoa to Atlanta, sent Jaylen Waddle to Denver, put Tyreek Hill on injured reserve, let Bradley Chubb, Jaelan Phillips, Minkah Fitzpatrick and their whole starting secondary leave, hired a defensive coordinator to be head coach, and paid Malik Willis $22.5 million a year off one start. The Raiders went 3-14, drafted a quarterback first overall, and made him the backup to a 38-year-old Kirk Cousins. The sportsbooks made the 3-14 team a 3.5-point favorite over the 7-10 team and set the total at 40.5, the third-lowest of the opening weekend.
The loudest number on the board is De'Von Achane's rushing line: 65.5, from a back who averaged 84 a game, cleared 65.5 in 11 of 16, and had the best yards-over-expected number in football. The second-loudest is the one that is missing. Ashton Jeanty, the sixth pick in last year's draft, has a touchdown price at nine books and a rushing yards line at one.
Sunday, Sept 13 · 4:25 PM ET · Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas · dome, no weather
Raiders −3.5 · Total 40.5 · Dolphins +160 / Raiders −192
Jeff Hafley (first season) vs. Klint Kubiak (first season) · Miami won the last two meetings, 34-19 and 20-13, both in Miami
Part 1 · What you missed
Miami Dolphins. Seven and ten, a 33-8 opening loss in Indianapolis, and then everything changed. Tua Tagovailoa is a Falcon. Jaylen Waddle (100 targets, 910 yards) is a Bronco. Tyreek Hill, 32, is on injured reserve. Darren Waller (6 touchdowns on 8 red-zone targets) is a Panther. Bradley Chubb (8.5 sacks) is a Bill, Jaelan Phillips and Tyrel Dodson are Panthers, Minkah Fitzpatrick is a Jet, Jack Jones and Ashtyn Davis are 49ers, Rasul Douglas is a Commander. Kenneth Grant, last year's 13th pick, is on reserve. Malik Willis, 27, is the quarterback at $22.5 million a year after one start for Green Bay last December (18 of 21, 288 yards, 60 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns). Pete Woods was drafted 29th and is not listed in the top two. The receivers are Malik Washington (317 yards last year), Jalen Tolbert from Dallas, and Caleb Douglas, a third-round rookie; the tight end is Greg Dulcich. Kadyn Proctor, the 12th pick, is listed at left guard. Chris Johnson (27th pick) is the nickel, Jacob Rodriguez (43rd) the middle linebacker, Michael Taaffe (fifth round) the free safety. Still here: De'Von Achane, paid $16 million a year after 1,350 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns; Zach Sieler; Chop Robinson; Jordyn Brooks.
Las Vegas Raiders. Three and fourteen and the worst offense in football. Geno Smith is a Jet. Kirk Cousins, 38, is the starter after eight relief appearances in Atlanta (205 yards a game). Fernando Mendoza, the first pick in the draft, is the backup. Jakobi Meyers is a Jaguar. Tyler Linderbaum came from Baltimore to play center; Jalen Nailor from Minnesota, Taron Johnson from Buffalo, Kwity Paye from Indianapolis, Nakobe Dean from Philadelphia, Quay Walker (130 tackles) from Green Bay. Devin White is a Lion, Tyree Wilson a Saint. Still here: Brock Bowers, 23, 680 yards and 7 touchdowns in 12 games; Ashton Jeanty, 975 yards on 266 carries as a rookie; Tre Tucker, 696 yards; Michael Mayer; Maxx Crosby, 10 sacks in 15 games; Malcolm Koonce. Mike Washington Jr., a fourth-round rookie with a 4.33 forty, is the second back and is priced at +120 to score.
One sentence: Miami has a new quarterback, a new coach, a new secondary and one star; Las Vegas has a 38-year-old quarterback, a first-overall pick behind him, and a running back the books will not post a number on.
Part 2 · The line, translated
Raiders −3.5. The books think Las Vegas is three and a half points better at home. Bet the Raiders and they win by 4 or more; bet Miami and a 3-point loss pays. With home field worth about 2.5, that is a one-point edge for a 3-14 team over a 7-10 team on a neutral field, which is the market's way of saying the 7-10 team does not exist anymore.
Total 40.5. Add both final scores. It works out to roughly Raiders 22, Dolphins 18.5. Both offenses were the two slowest in football last year (Miami 32nd in plays per game, Las Vegas 31st), both have new quarterbacks and new head coaches, and the openers last year landed on 41 and 33.
+160 / −192. Straight-up winner. Risk $100 to win $160 on Miami; risk $192 to win $100 on Las Vegas. The books make the Raiders about a 64% chance.
Player props read the same way. "De'Von Achane anytime touchdown, +115" means risk $100 to win $115 that he scores, and the book thinks that happens about 47% of the time. He scored in 63% of his games. Hold it for Part 5 next to the opening-week bar: at DraftKings, Week 1 running back rushing Overs cashed 27% last September and running back touchdown Overs cashed 22%. Achane's card has to clear that, and the reason it does is that his lines were set 16 to 19 yards under his own averages.
Part 3 · Three words you need Sunday
Yards over expected. How many yards a back gains beyond what the blocking and the box should have produced. Achane gained 1.04 a carry more than expected last year, the best figure of any lead back on the slate. Jeanty gained 0.18 less than expected. The market priced Jeanty like a star and Achane like a question.
The missing line. Books post a player's yardage lines when they are confident he plays a full role. Thirteen books posted Achane's rushing yards. One posted Jeanty's. Nine posted Jeanty's touchdown price, and seven posted his rookie backup's, at a number (+120) you give a starter. Nothing in the injury data explains it yet. The board is telling you something the Friday report has not.
Funnel. Where a defense sends the ball. Miami allowed the fourth-fewest receiving yards to receivers in football and the eighth-most to tight ends and backs. Las Vegas allowed the fourth-fewest to tight ends and the fifth-fewest to backs. Sunday, each defense's leak is the other offense's second option.
Part 4 · The whiteboards
Miami's defense blitzed a lot, got no pressure, and leaked the middle of the field. Receipt: +0.17 expected points allowed per dropback, 27th; pressure 26.6%, 27th; blitz 36.4%, fifth; sack rate 6.6%, 16th; run defense ninth. By yards, 214.1 passing allowed a game (17th), 104.4 to receivers (fourth-fewest), 53.1 to tight ends (eighth-most), 31.2 receiving to backs (eighth-most), 96.9 rushing to backs (eighth-most), 20.1 rushing to quarterbacks (ninth-most). Then Chubb, Phillips, Dodson, Fitzpatrick, Jones, Davis and Douglas left. By how far the ball flew, all 17 games:
Behind the line · Throws: 86 · Caught: 86% · TDs: 2 · Worth to offense: +0.15
0 to 9 yards · Throws: 274 · Caught: 79% · TDs: 14 · Worth to offense: +0.16
10 to 19 yards · Throws: 103 · Caught: 60% · TDs: 9 · Worth to offense: +0.71
20 or more · Throws: 52 · Caught: 35% · TDs: 4 · Worth to offense: +0.27
The second-worst intermediate defense in football, and 9 touchdowns on those throws. Tight ends at 10 to 19: 29 throws, 3 touchdowns, +0.74 each. Receivers at 10 to 19: 68 throws, 5 touchdowns, +0.74. Tight ends underneath: 89 throws, 84% caught, +0.06, fine. The shells: Cover 2 (192 snaps, +0.20), Cover 3 (137, +0.22), Cover 1 (112, +0.24), all bad, all played by a secondary that is now Jason Marshall, JuJu Brents, a first-round nickel and two young safeties.
Las Vegas's defense was the ninth-best in football by efficiency with the 27th-best pressure rate. Receipt: −0.04 per dropback, ninth; pressure 26.6%, 27th; blitz 21.9%, 30th; sack rate 6.2%, 18th; run defense 20th. By yards, 206.2 passing allowed (19th), 125.4 to receivers (16th), 37.5 to tight ends (fourth-fewest), 19.8 receiving to backs (fifth-fewest), 81.1 rushing to backs (12th-fewest), 14.8 rushing to quarterbacks (10th-fewest).
Behind the line · Throws: 110 · Caught: 75% · TDs: 4 · Worth to offense: −0.24
0 to 9 yards · Throws: 251 · Caught: 77% · TDs: 12 · Worth to offense: +0.25
10 to 19 yards · Throws: 105 · Caught: 59% · TDs: 4 · Worth to offense: +0.63
20 or more · Throws: 58 · Caught: 34% · TDs: 3 · Worth to offense: +0.28
The third-worst intermediate defense by efficiency, with few touchdowns on it. Receivers at 10 to 19: 79 throws, 847 yards, +0.71. Tight ends at 10 to 19: 21 throws, no touchdowns, +0.69. The short band was fourth-worst (+0.25), but behind the line the Raiders were excellent (−0.24), which is how they allowed the fifth-fewest yards to backs. The shells: Cover 3 on 212 snaps at +0.20 (bad), Cover 2 on 124 (+0.09), quarters on 66 (−0.22, good). Miami's offense against Cover 3 last year: −0.08. Against quarters: +0.34. Miami's offense in 2026 is a different offense.
The trench math. Las Vegas allowed the highest sack rate in football (10.7%) and the sixth-most pressure, and then replaced its quarterback with one who does not move (0.6 rushing yards a game) and added Linderbaum at center. Miami's pass rush lost Chubb, Phillips and Dodson (16.5 sacks between them); what is left is Sieler (5.5), Robinson (4), Brooks (3.5), Josh Uche and Clelin Ferrell. Miami's line was middling (18th in pressure allowed, 12th in sacks) and has a first-round tackle at guard. Las Vegas's rush is Crosby (10 sacks in 15 games), Koonce, Paye and two interior players with 4 each.
Part 5 · The prop board
Nine cards. "Last year" is the 2025 regular season; neither team played in January. Every line is Tuesday evening's, thirteen books, quoted with the book.
De'Von Achane · RB · Dolphins
Who: 24, paid $16 million a year, 1,350 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns, and the most efficient runner on the slate by yards over expected.
What he does: 14.9 carries and 4.2 catches a game, +1.04 yards over expected a carry, 23.1% stacked boxes, 11 red-zone targets, and Miami's first touchdown four times, the most on the team. Ollie Gordon took 6 goal-line carries to his 5.
Last year (16 games): 84.4 rushing yards, median 81.5. Over 65.5 in 11 of 16. Rushing plus receiving 114.9, median 105.5; over 97.5 in 11 of 16. 30.5 receiving yards, median 26.5; over 27.5 in 8 of 16. Four or more catches in 8 of 16; last five 2.6. Fifteen or more carries in 8 of 16. Scored in 10 of 16. Longest run over 15.5 in 11 of 16.
The book says: 65.5 rushing yards (65.5 to 69.5; Over −118 at most books, even money at ESPN Bet on 69.5). 97.5 rushing plus receiving (97.5 to 103.5; Over −112 at DraftKings). 27.5 receiving yards. 4.5 receptions (+129 Over at DraftKings). 14.5 carries. Anytime TD +115 at DraftKings. Longest rush 15.5.
The read: Over 65.5 rushing yards at −118, Over 97.5 rushing plus receiving at −112, and anytime TD at +115. The whole card, because every number on it was set 16 to 19 yards under his own median. The market did that for real reasons: a new coach, a quarterback who runs, the 32nd-slowest offense in football, a run defense that allowed the 12th-fewest yards to backs. The log answers all of them: 11 of 16 on both yardage lines, 10 of 16 on the touchdown, from a back whose efficiency does not depend on the offense around him. The Week 1 running back bar (27% on rushing Overs, 22% on touchdowns) is the counter, and it is why the combined number is the primary: it includes the checkdowns a running quarterback throws when the read is not there. The receptions Over at +129 is the one to leave: Las Vegas allowed the fifth-fewest receiving yards to backs and Achane's last five games averaged 2.6 catches.
Malik Willis · QB · Dolphins
Who: 27, $22.5 million a year, one NFL start in 2025 (Week 17 for Green Bay, 288 yards and two rushing scores) and one relief appearance the week before.
What he does: Runs. Nine carries for 60 yards in the start, ten for 44 the week before. Completed 18 of 21 in the start and 9 of 11 in relief. Everything else is a projection.
Last year (2 games): Passing 288 and 121. Rushing 60 and 44. Attempts 21 and 11.
The book says: 176.5 passing yards (176.5 to 184.5). Over 0.5 touchdowns −213. Over 0.5 interceptions −120 at BetParx. 27.5 attempts (Under even money at BetParx). 17.5 completions. 38.5 rushing yards (35.5 to 39.5; Over −109 at DraftKings). Over 6.5 rushing attempts (7.5 at DraftKings, +113). Longest completion 30.5. Anytime TD +320.
The read: Under 27.5 attempts at even money, small, and Over 38.5 rushing yards at −109, small. Neither has a log; both have a structure. Miami ran the fewest plays in football last year and passed 6.4 points less than the situation called for, and it hired a defensive coach and a running quarterback. Twenty-one attempts in his one start. The rushing Over is 60 and 44 against a line of 38.5, from a quarterback whose legs are the reason he was paid, against a defense that allowed the 10th-fewest rushing yards to quarterbacks; the sample is two games and that is why it is small. The passing yards at 176.5 are a blank cell. The touchdown at +320: he scored twice in his one start; a dart.
Malik Washington, Jalen Tolbert and Caleb Douglas · WR · Dolphins
Who: Washington, 25, the listed first receiver after 317 yards in 17 games. Tolbert, 27, from Dallas (203 yards in 12 games), the listed second receiver, and the market has no yardage line for him. Douglas, 22, the 75th pick, and the market posted a line for him at nine books.
What they do: Washington: 5.2-yard routes, 3.7 yards of separation, 70.8% catch rate, 11 red-zone targets. A slot receiver with a gadget role. Waddle's 100 targets, Hill's, and Waller's 34 are vacated and the market has to guess where they land.
Last year: Washington: 18.6 yards, median 13; under 27.5 in 12 of 17; 3 or more catches in 10 of 17; scored in 4 of 17. Tolbert: 21.5 yards in 8 logged games. Douglas: blank.
The book says: Washington 27.5 receiving yards (26.5 to 27.5), 2.5 receptions (Over −149), anytime +400 at DraftKings. Tolbert: anytime +800, nothing else. Douglas: 25.5 receiving yards (25.5 to 28.5), 2.5 receptions (Over +120 at FanDuel), anytime +500.
The read: Pass, all three. Washington's line is 14 yards above his median because 134 targets left the building; the log says Under 12 of 17 and the roster says he goes from fourth option to first. That fork is a blank cell. Tolbert is the depth chart's second receiver and the market will not post a number on him, which means the market does not believe the depth chart. Douglas has a line and no games. The books have told you they think the rookie plays more than the veteran, and they have told you they do not know how much. Neither do we.
Greg Dulcich · TE · Dolphins
Who: 26, nine games in Miami after arriving midseason, 37.2 yards a game in them, and the man who inherits Waller's red zone.
What he does: Nine games, nine catches of 14 yards or more: his longest reception cleared 14.5 in 8 of 9. A seam tight end. Waller's 8 red-zone targets and 6 touchdowns are vacated.
Last year (9 games): 37.2 yards, median 41. Over 25.5 in 6 of 9. Last five 44.4. Three or more catches in 4 of 8. Longest catch over 14.5 in 8 of 9; over 19.5 in 7 of 9. Scored in 1 of 9.
The book says: 25.5 receiving yards (25.5 to 27.5; Over −109 at DraftKings). 2.5 receptions −114. Longest reception 14.5 (Over −115 at Fliff). Anytime TD +450 at Fanatics. Alternate 39.5 yards +200.
The read: Over 14.5 longest reception at −115, small. Eight of nine at a 53% price, from a tight end who works the seam, against a defense whose intermediate band to tight ends was +0.69 a throw with no touchdowns. Nine games is the whole counter, along with the Raiders' fourth-fewest tight-end yards allowed and the tight-end bar. The yards at 25.5 (6 of 9, and 16 under his median) are the second lean, smaller, because the last-five average of 44.4 is exactly the recent form this database says not to pay for. The touchdown at +450 is a 1-of-9 player at an 18% price, with Waller's red zone the only argument; pass.
Kirk Cousins · QB · Raiders
Who: 38, $11.3 million, eight relief appearances in Atlanta last year, a first-overall pick behind him, and a line that assumes he is the same quarterback he was in Minnesota.
What he does: 2.78 seconds, 6.9-yard average depth, 1.7 points below expected, and does not move: 0.6 rushing yards a game, and under 0.5 rushing yards in 5 of 8 games.
Last year (8 games, Atlanta): 205.5 passing yards, median 188.5; over 216.5 in 2 of 8. Two or more touchdowns in 3 of 8. Interception in 4 of 8. Twenty or more completions in 4 of 8. Thirty or more attempts in 6 of 8. Longest completion over 33.5 in 5 of 10.
The book says: 216.5 passing yards (213.5 to 216.5). Over 1.5 touchdowns +135 at DraftKings. Over 0.5 interceptions +102. 19.5 completions. 29.5 attempts. Longest completion 33.5. 0.5 rushing yards (Under −156 at FanDuel). Anytime TD +2400.
The read: Pass, by rule. A quarterback's prior-year yardage edge does not carry across a team change until there are three games of new tape, and his prior year was eight relief appearances anyway. The one number the tape supports is the one the market already priced: Under 0.5 rushing yards at −156 is 62% by the log and 61% by the price. Nothing here. The structure says Under 216.5 (a 38-year-old on the worst offense in football, behind the line that allowed the most sacks, against a defense that leaks tight ends and not receivers), and the rule says wait.
Ashton Jeanty and Mike Washington Jr. · RB · Raiders
Who: Jeanty, 22, the sixth pick in 2025, 975 yards and 5 touchdowns on 266 carries. Washington, 23, the 122nd pick this April, a 4.33 forty, no NFL snaps.
What they do: Jeanty: 15.6 carries a game, 4.1 a carry, −0.18 yards over expected, 16.2% stacked boxes, 11 goal-line carries with 3 scores, 10 red-zone targets with 4. Washington: unknown.
Last year: Jeanty: 57.4 rushing yards, median 50; 16 or more carries in 11 of 17; scored in 7 of 17; rushing plus receiving 77.7, median 63. Washington: blank.
The book says: Jeanty: anytime TD −120 at Fanatics (9 books). Rushing yards: posted at one book, as an alternate ladder. Carries: one book. Receptions: one book. Washington: anytime TD +120 at BetRivers (7 books).
The read: Pass on Jeanty until the Friday report, and fade the touchdown if he is listed as anything but a full go. Every other lead back on this slate has a rushing line at ten or more books. Jeanty has one. His rookie backup has a starter's touchdown price. The market is pricing a role it is not sure of, and so should you. If he plays a full game, the touchdown at −120 (55% implied) against a 41% log is a fade on the numbers alone. Washington at +120 with no log is the market's hedge, not yours.
Brock Bowers · TE · Raiders
Who: 23, the 13th pick in 2024, 680 yards and 7 touchdowns in 12 games, a line set for the 2024 version of him, and a new 38-year-old quarterback.
What he does: 7.1-yard routes, 2.9 yards of separation, 74.4% catch rate, +0.97 yards after the catch above expected, 18 red-zone targets and 6 touchdowns. Missed Weeks 5 through 8 and the last two games.
Last year (12 games): 56.7 yards, median 46. Under 63.5 in 9 of 12. Last five 45.0. Five or fewer catches in 8 of 12. Scored in 4 of 12. Longest catch under 20.5 in 8 of 12.
The book says: 63.5 receiving yards (63.5 to 67.5; Under −105 at ESPN Bet). Under 5.5 receptions +112 at DraftKings (6.5 at some books). Anytime TD +155 at BetRivers. Longest reception 20.5 (Under −115 at Fliff). Alternate 79.5 yards +182, 99.5 +390.
The read: Under 63.5 receiving yards at −105. Seventy-five percent at a 51% price, and the line is 17 yards above his median. The market priced his rookie year (1,194 yards) and Meyers's vacated targets. The mechanism argues Under: Cousins throws a 6.9-yard ball, Bowers runs a 7.1-yard route, and Miami's tight-end leak was at 10 to 19 yards (+0.74), not underneath (+0.06 on 89 throws). Under 5.5 receptions at +112 is the same read at a better price (67% at 47%), and Under 20.5 longest reception at −115 (67%) is the quarterback's arm. The counters: Meyers's targets, a tight end who caught 74% of what came his way, and Cousins's history of feeding the position. The touchdown at +155 (33% of games at a 39% price) is a fade by the log and a coin by the role.
Tre Tucker, Jalen Nailor and Michael Mayer · Raiders
Who: Tucker, 25, 696 yards and 5 touchdowns, 29.1% of the team's air yards, the first receiver by snaps all year (93 to 100% in December). Nailor, 27, from Minnesota at $11.7 million a year, 444 yards. Mayer, 25, the second tight end, in the last year of his rookie deal.
What they do: Tucker runs 10.3-yard routes with 3.6 yards of separation and catches 62%. Nailor runs 13.1-yard routes and catches 55%; 13 red-zone targets and 4 touchdowns as Minnesota's third receiver. Mayer runs 4.4-yard routes and catches 70%; he played 93 and 95% of the snaps in the two games Bowers missed and caught 9 passes in one of them.
Last year: Tucker: 40.9 yards, median 33; under 40.5 in 10 of 17; last five 29.2; scored in 3 of 17. Nailor (Minnesota): 26.1 yards, median 27; over 20.5 in 9 of 17; scored in 3 of 16. Mayer (12 games): 27.3 yards, median 18; three or more catches in 6 of 11, 4 of 8 with Bowers active; scored in 1 of 13.
The book says: Tucker 40.5 receiving yards (39.5 to 41.5; Under −110 at Fanatics), 3.5 receptions, anytime +310 at Bally. Nailor 20.5 receiving yards, 1.5 receptions (2.5 at FanDuel, Over +154), anytime +500. Mayer 17.5 receiving yards, Over 2.5 receptions +144 at FanDuel, anytime +700.
The read: Under Tucker 40.5 receiving yards at −110. Ten of seventeen at a 52% price, from a receiver whose median is 33, against a defense that allowed the fourth-fewest receiver yards in football and funnels the ball to tight ends and backs. The counter is Meyers's vacated targets and a new offense; the answer is that Miami's receiver number was built against Waddle-and-Hill-level talent and Tucker is not that. Mayer Over 2.5 receptions at +144 is the dart: 55% overall, 50% with Bowers on the field, at a 41% price, from a quarterback whose offenses have always used two tight ends. Nailor is a pass: a 53% log at a 53% price, and a new team. Tucker's touchdown at +310 (18% of games at a 24% price) is a fade.
Maxx Crosby and the game's kickers
Who: Crosby, 29, 10 sacks in 15 games. Matt Gay and Riley Patterson.
Last year: Crosby: half a sack or more in 8 of 15, a full sack in 8 of 15. Patterson: 6.8 points a game, 7 or more in 8 of 17. Gay: 12 games between Washington and San Francisco.
The book says: Crosby 0.5 sacks (Over about −133 at Fliff; 0.75 at PrizePicks). Patterson 6.5 kicking points (Over −105 at Fliff). Gay 7.5.
The read: Pass. Crosby at 53% against a 57% price is fair, against a Miami line that allowed the 12th-highest sack rate with a quarterback who takes off. Patterson at 47% against 51% is fair. Nothing to do here.
Part 6 · Between the lines
Achane's card is the reverse of the Week 1 trap. Most opening-week running back lines are set on last year's averages and the Overs lose 73% of the time. Achane's were set 16 to 19 yards under his averages because the market does not trust the offense around him. The log is 11 of 16 on both yardage lines and 10 of 16 on the touchdown, and his efficiency (+1.04 yards over expected a carry, best on the slate) is the one thing about Miami's offense that does not depend on Malik Willis.
Jeanty's line is not there. Thirteen books, and the sixth pick in last year's draft has a rushing line at one of them. His fourth-round backup is +120 to score, a price you give a starter. The injury data is empty for both teams as of Tuesday. When the market will not post a number on a player who had 266 carries, it is because it is waiting on information you do not have yet. Wait with it.
Both defenses funnel, and both funnels point at the other team's second option. Miami allowed the fourth-fewest receiver yards and the eighth-most tight-end yards. Las Vegas allowed the fourth-fewest tight-end yards and the fifth-fewest running-back receiving yards. Bowers, Las Vegas's best player, runs into Miami's one good cell (tight ends underneath, +0.06). Achane's catches run into Las Vegas's best cell (backs, −0.24 behind the line). Tucker runs into the fourth-fewest receiver yards allowed. The whiteboards say Under on almost every pass catcher in this game.
Miami's second receiver has no line and its third has one at nine books. The depth chart says Tolbert. The board says Douglas. The board is money and the depth chart is a press release.
Kirk Cousins does not run and the books priced that too. Under 0.5 rushing yards at −156 is the one prop in this game where the log (62%) and the price (61%) agree to the point. The market knows who he is. What it does not know is what a 38-year-old does behind the line that allowed the most sacks in football, and the team-change rule says do not guess.
The opening-week bar, in one table. DraftKings Over props, settled, both seasons:
QB passing TDs · 2024: 22% · 2025: 29%
QB passing yards · 2024: 33% · 2025: 42%
RB rushing yards · 2025: 27%
TE receiving yards · 2024: 31% · 2025: 41%
WR receiving yards · 2024: 49% · 2025: 49%
Achane's rushing Over is the one running back yardage Over in this piece, and it is here because the line is 16 under his median, not because of the matchup. The combined number is the primary for the same reason.
Part 7 · How Sunday probably goes
Hafley's plan is the plan every defensive coach with a running quarterback and a great back has: Achane 20 times, Willis on the edge, throw it 22 times, keep the rebuilt secondary off the field. Kubiak's plan is Cousins on schedule, Bowers underneath, Jeanty if he is Jeanty, and Crosby against Patrick Paul on the other side.
First quarter, punts. Achane runs for 9 and 11 on the first drive and Willis is sacked by Crosby on third down. Cousins hits Bowers for 8 and Tucker for 12 and the drive dies at midfield. Achane breaks a 31-yard run on Miami's second possession; Willis keeps for 7 on a read; Patterson kicks. 3-0.
Second quarter, Vegas scores first through the air. Cousins finds Mayer for 14 up the seam and Nailor on a 22-yard comeback against Marshall, and Washington (the Raiders' one) scores from the 2 on a toss with Jeanty on the sideline. Willis throws a 19-yard ball to Dulcich against Cover 3 and Achane finishes the drive from the 6. 10-7 Miami at the half.
Second half, the game shrinks. Miami runs Achane on 12 of 22 second-half snaps. Cousins throws 16 passes in the half, none past 18 yards, and Bowers finishes with 5 catches for 47. Gay kicks twice. Willis throws his one interception on a late overthrow to Douglas; Vegas kicks again with 2:40 left. Achane's 52-yard catch-and-run sets up Patterson's tying kick with 0:38 left. Overtime is two field goals.
Raiders 20, Dolphins 17 (after overtime). Total 37, under the number. Achane: 21 carries, 104 yards, 4 catches, 63 yards, a touchdown. Willis: 15 of 24, 171 yards, 1 interception, 46 rushing yards. Cousins: 22 of 31, 209 yards, 0 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 0 rushing yards. Bowers: 5 catches, 47 yards, longest 14. Tucker: 3 catches, 29 yards. Mayer: 3 catches, 31 yards. Dulcich: 3 catches, 38 yards, longest 19. Jeanty: 11 carries, 41 yards.
Part 8 · The plays
Each one: the plain reason, then the receipt.
Over De'Von Achane 97.5 rushing plus receiving (−112, DraftKings). A number 8 under his median, from the most efficient back on the slate. Receipt: 11 of 16; median 105.5; +1.04 yards over expected a carry.
Over De'Von Achane 65.5 rushing yards (−118). Receipt: 11 of 16; median 81.5; the line is 16 under it.
De'Von Achane anytime TD (+115, DraftKings). Receipt: 10 of 16; Miami's first touchdown four times; 11 red-zone targets.
Under Brock Bowers 63.5 receiving yards (−105, ESPN Bet). A line set for his rookie year, a 38-year-old quarterback who throws a 6.9-yard ball, and a matchup against Miami's one good tight-end cell. Receipt: 9 of 12; median 46; Miami +0.06 a throw to tight ends underneath.
Under Tre Tucker 40.5 receiving yards (−110, Fanatics). Receipt: 10 of 17; median 33; Miami allowed the fourth-fewest receiver yards in football.
Under Brock Bowers 5.5 receptions (+112, DraftKings). Receipt: 8 of 12.
Over Greg Dulcich 14.5 longest reception (−115, Fliff). A seam tight end against an intermediate leak. Receipt: 8 of 9; Las Vegas +0.69 a throw to tight ends at 10 to 19.
Small: Under Malik Willis 27.5 attempts (even money, BetParx), 21 in his one start and the slowest, least pass-happy offense in football. Over Malik Willis 38.5 rushing yards (−109, DraftKings), 60 and 44 in his two games, two games being the whole caution. Under Brock Bowers 20.5 longest reception (−115, Fliff), 8 of 12. Over Greg Dulcich 25.5 receiving yards (−109, DraftKings), 6 of 9 with the recent-form warning.
Darts: Michael Mayer Over 2.5 receptions (+144, FanDuel), 6 of 11. Malik Willis anytime (+320), two rushing scores in his one start. Michael Mayer anytime (+700), 6 red-zone targets and a quarterback who uses two tight ends.
Fades: Ashton Jeanty anytime (−120) if he is a full go, 7 of 17 at a 55% price; if he is not, nothing. Tre Tucker anytime (+310, 3 of 17). Greg Dulcich anytime (+450, 1 of 9). Brock Bowers anytime (+155, 4 of 12, a lean not a play).
Passes: Jeanty, everything, until Friday. Cousins, everything (the team-change rule and an eight-game relief sample). Willis's passing yards (one start). Washington, Tolbert, Douglas (a role the market cannot price either). Nailor (53%). Achane's receptions (the Raiders' best cell). Crosby's sacks (fair). Kickers (fair).
Game: Under 40.5, light. The two slowest offenses in football, two new quarterbacks, two new head coaches, and openers last year that landed on 41 and 33. Raiders −3.5: no lean. A one-point edge on a neutral field between a 3-14 team with a 38-year-old and a 7-10 team that traded its quarterback is not a number the tape can argue with in either direction.
The stack: Achane Over 97.5 combined + Under Bowers 63.5 + Under Tucker 40.5. One story: Miami runs its best player twenty times, Vegas throws short to a tight end into the one cell Miami covers, and nobody clears 45 receiving yards. Lotto: Achane anytime + Mayer Over 2.5 receptions + Willis anytime.
Part 9 · What to watch
Watch the Raiders' first offensive snap. If Jeanty is on the field and takes the first carry, the market's blank cell was caution and not news, and his touchdown price becomes a fade on the numbers. If it is Washington, the board knew something Friday's report caught up to.
Watch Miami's first third down. If Willis pulls it down and runs, Hafley's offense is what the pace and pass rate say it is, and the attempts Under and the rushing Over are both live. If he stands in and throws to Douglas, the books were right about the rookie and the depth chart was wrong.
And watch Bowers's first target. If Cousins finds him 6 yards downfield on a quick out, the Under is the game; that is Miami's good cell and Cousins's arm. If he gets him on a 15-yard seam against Cover 2, Miami's intermediate leak survived the roster turnover and the Under is in trouble.
You will know all three inside the first quarter. That is more than most people at Allegiant will know.
The most efficient runner in football had every line set under his own median because the market does not trust the offense around him. The sixth pick in last year's draft has a touchdown price and no yardage line because the market does not trust something it will not say. Which back does the board fix first: the one it underpriced, or the one it will not price?
Built from 2025 game logs, full-season play-by-play by throw depth and position (17 games), charted blitz and pressure rates, coverage shells, red-zone and goal-line counts, NGS separation, route depth and time to throw, yards over expected, current rosters and reserve lists, and the thirteen-book board as of Tuesday 6:50 PM ET. No practice report had been filed for either team when this was written.
Model output, not financial advice. Bet responsibly.