You have not watched a football game since February. Since then the Steelers replaced the only head coach most of you have ever known them to have with Mike McCarthy, brought Aaron Rodgers back for a season at 42, and signed Michael Pittman from Indianapolis to stand across from DK Metcalf. The Falcons let Kirk Cousins go to Las Vegas, handed the offense to Tua Tagovailoa on a one-year contract, and then lost both of last year's first-round pass rushers to injured reserve before the first snap. The sportsbooks made Pittsburgh a 3.5-point favorite and set the total at 42.5, the third-lowest on the opening slate.
The loudest number on the board is a defensive one. Tua Tagovailoa faced a blitz on 121 dropbacks last year and was sacked on 11.6% of them, completed 55%, and threw six interceptions. Pittsburgh blitzed on 36.8% of dropbacks last year, fourth-most in football, and 40% or more in four of its last six games. His passing line is 206.5. He cleared it in 4 of 14 games with a better offensive line than the one he has now.
Sunday, Sept 13 · 1:00 PM ET · Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh · outdoors, 84 degrees, light drizzle, 8 mph
Steelers −3.5 · Total 42.5 · Falcons +154 / Steelers −185
Raheem Morris (third season) vs. Mike McCarthy (first in Pittsburgh) · the only meeting since 2024 was a 10-point game with 28 total points
Part 1 · What you missed
Atlanta Falcons. They went 8-9 and rebuilt the quarterback room without rebuilding the offense. Cousins, 38, is a Raider. Michael Penix Jr., who started nine games and averaged 220 yards, is the backup at $5.7 million. The starter is Tua Tagovailoa, 28, fourteen games in Miami last year, 190 yards a game, 20 touchdowns and 15 interceptions, signed for $1.2 million. That salary is the market's opinion of him and the props board agrees. Tyler Allgeier, who took 10 carries inside the 5 and scored 5 times, is a Cardinal; Brian Robinson came from San Francisco to compete for that work. Darnell Mooney and his 72 targets went to the Giants; Jahan Dotson, Olamide Zaccheaus and tight end Austin Hooper arrived. Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts are still the offense, and Pitts got paid: $17.7 million a year through 2028. On defense, the news is the news. James Pearce Jr. (10.5 sacks) and Jalon Walker (5.5), the two first-round picks from 2025, are both on reserve. Kaden Elliss, who led the team with 105 tackles, is a Saint; Ruke Orhorhoro is a Jaguar. Gervon Dexter came from Chicago with 6 sacks. Za'Darius Smith starts on the edge.
Pittsburgh Steelers. They went 10-7, made the playoffs, and lost the wild-card game 30-6 at home to Houston with Rodgers throwing for 146 yards. Mike Tomlin is gone. Mike McCarthy is the head coach. Rodgers stayed. Michael Pittman (80 catches, 784 yards, 7 touchdowns in Indianapolis) signed for $17.5 million a year to play opposite Metcalf. Rico Dowdle (1,085 rushing yards for Carolina) came to split the backfield with Jaylen Warren. Kenneth Gainwell, who caught 77 passes and had 17 red-zone targets, is a Buccaneer. Jonnu Smith and his 57 targets are in Green Bay. Calvin Austin is a Giant. Pat Freiermuth and Darnell Washington are the tight ends. The secondary added Jamel Dean from Tampa, Jaquan Brisker from Chicago and Rayshawn Jenkins from Cleveland; DeShon Elliott is on reserve. T.J. Watt is 31, Cam Heyward is 37, and Alex Highsmith led the team with 9.5 sacks.
One sentence: Pittsburgh changed the coach and added a receiver and a back; Atlanta changed the quarterback and lost its goal-line runner and its two best pass rushers.
Part 2 · The line, translated
Steelers −3.5. The books think Pittsburgh is three and a half points better at home. Bet the Steelers and they win by 4 or more. Bet the Falcons and a three-point loss pays. Is that a lot? Home field is worth about 2.5, so on a neutral field this is a one-point game between a 10-7 team and an 8-9 team, which is the market saying Rodgers at 42 and Tua at $1.2 million are close to a wash.
Total 42.5. Add both final scores. It works out to roughly Steelers 23, Falcons 19.5. That is a low number and it is earned: Pittsburgh ran the fifth-fewest plays a game in football last year (59.8), Atlanta threw the ball 5 points less often than its situations called for (27th), and the one time these teams met in the last two years it ended 18-10.
+154 / −185. Straight-up winner. Risk $100 to win $154 on Atlanta; risk $185 to win $100 on Pittsburgh. The books make the Steelers about a 65% chance. Those add to more than 100 because the extra is the book's fee.
Player props read the same way. "DK Metcalf anytime touchdown, +225" means risk $100 to win $225 that he scores, and the book thinks that happens about 31% of the time. He scored in 7 of 15 games last year. Hold it for Part 5, next to this: at DraftKings, Week 1 wide receiver touchdown Overs cashed 21% and 14% the last two years against a 19% base. The opening-week board is set off last season, and last season's players are a year older or on new teams. Every Over in this piece has to clear that bar.
Part 3 · Three words you need Sunday
Blitz. A defense normally rushes four and covers with seven. A blitz sends a fifth or sixth. It is a bet: if the extra man gets there, the quarterback gets hit; if he does not, a receiver is running against one defender with no help. Some quarterbacks make you pay for the bet. Tua is not one of them. Blitzed last year: −0.13 expected points a play, an 11.6% sack rate, 55% completions, six interceptions in 121 tries. Not blitzed: +0.08, 5.4%, 66%. Pittsburgh made the bet 36.8% of the time, fourth-most, and made it more as the year went on.
Air yards to the sticks. How far past the first-down marker the average throw travels. Rodgers throws 3.03 yards short of it, the shallowest of every quarterback with 250 attempts, and gets rid of the ball in 2.59 seconds, the fastest. Tua throws 2.1 yards short, second-shallowest. Two quarterbacks who aim under the marker and let the receiver run for it. That is why this total is 42.5, and it is why receptions props matter more than yardage props in this game.
The vacated role. When a player leaves, his yards leave with him but his job does not. Allgeier's 10 goal-line carries, Gainwell's 77 catches, Jonnu Smith's 57 targets and Mooney's 72 all belong to someone else now. The market has to price those jobs before anyone has done them.
Part 4 · The whiteboards
Pittsburgh's defense allowed more passing yards than any team in football and it was the deep ball that did it. Receipt: 269.6 passing yards a game, first; 147.3 to wide receivers, fifth-most; 56.5 to tight ends, fifth-most. The run defense was middle of the pack (88.1 to backs, 17th). And by how far the ball flew, all 17 games:
Behind the line · Throws: 100 · Caught: 70% · TDs: 3 · Worth to offense: −0.31
0 to 9 yards · Throws: 331 · Caught: 69% · TDs: 14 · Worth to offense: +0.05
10 to 19 yards · Throws: 133 · Caught: 56% · TDs: 5 · Worth to offense: +0.55
20 or more · Throws: 49 · Caught: 49% · TDs: 8 · Worth to offense: +0.98
Forty-nine percent of deep throws completed against them, second-worst in the league, and nearly a full point to the offense every time somebody tried, third-worst. Seven of the eight deep touchdowns went to receivers on 45 throws for 746 yards. At 10 to 19, receivers were worth +0.61 a throw and tight ends +0.80 with three scores on 29 tries. Underneath, Pittsburgh was fine. Everything past ten yards was open.
Two things about that. Pittsburgh blitzed 36.8% (fourth) and pressured 29.5% (20th): a blitz-heavy defense that did not get home enough, which is exactly what leaves receivers free downfield. And the secondary that gave up those numbers was rebuilt: Dean, Brisker and Jenkins are new, Elliott is out, Jalen Ramsey plays the slot. Read the deep table as a description of a unit that no longer exists in that form, and read the blitz rate as a coach's habit that a new head coach may or may not keep.
Atlanta's defense was the disruptive one, and the disruption is on injured reserve. Receipt: 9.05% sack rate, fourth in football, on a 36.3% blitz rate (sixth) and 31.3% pressure (11th). Of the 57 sacks that built that number, Pearce had 10.5, Walker 5.5, Orhorhoro 3.5 and Elliss 3.5. Twenty-three of the 57 are not on the field Sunday, and the two best young rushers are gone for the season. What is left: Brandon Dorlus (8.5), LaCale London (5), Zach Harrison (4.5), Za'Darius Smith, and Dexter's 6 from Chicago.
Behind the line · Throws: 86 · Caught: 73% · TDs: 3 · Worth to offense: −0.22
0 to 9 yards · Throws: 250 · Caught: 70% · TDs: 10 · Worth to offense: +0.12
10 to 19 yards · Throws: 129 · Caught: 57% · TDs: 6 · Worth to offense: +0.41
20 or more · Throws: 64 · Caught: 31% · TDs: 8 · Worth to offense: +0.22
Atlanta defended the deep ball well (31% completions, fifth-best) and leaked at 10 to 19: 97 receiver throws there for 1,031 yards, +0.54 each. Tight ends underneath were quietly expensive too: 66 throws, 76% caught, +0.36 a throw, though only one touchdown. The Falcons played more man coverage than anyone in this game (Cover 1 on 165 snaps, and it worked: −0.12 a throw). Their zone was the problem (Cover 3, +0.14).
Now the trench math. Pittsburgh's offensive line allowed pressure on 20.4% of dropbacks last year, the best number in the league, protecting a quarterback who throws in 2.59 seconds. Atlanta's blitz-heavy defense is missing 40% of its sacks. That side of the ball is the Steelers' to control.
The other side is the game. Atlanta's line allowed pressure 28.7% of the time (21st). Pittsburgh blitzed more than almost anyone and the quarterback across from them falls apart against it.
Part 5 · The prop board
Eight cards. "Last year" is the 2025 regular season unless noted; Pittsburgh's one playoff game is called out because it was against a blitz-heavy defense and it tells you something. Every line is Tuesday evening's, twelve books, quoted with the book.
Tua Tagovailoa · QB · Falcons
Who: Fifth pick in 2020, a Pro Bowl season in 2023, benched and released by Miami two years later, and Atlanta's starter at a backup's salary.
What he does: Throws quick (2.65 seconds, second-fastest) and short (2.1 yards under the sticks, second-shallowest), completes what he throws when nobody is in his face, and comes apart when somebody is. Against the blitz: −0.13 a play, 11.6% sacked, 55% completions, 6 interceptions on 121 dropbacks.
Last year (14 games): 190.0 passing yards a game, median 175. Over 206.5 in 4 of 14. Two or more touchdown passes in 7 of 14; at least one in 10 of 14. Threw an interception in 9 of 14. Attempts 27.4 a game, median 25.5; over 32.5 in 3 of 14.
The book says: 206.5 passing yards at nine books (210.5 at one). Over 1.5 touchdown passes +194 at FanDuel; DraftKings will only post 0.5. Over 0.5 interceptions −164 at BetParx. 32.5 attempts (31.5 at BetParx). 19.5 completions.
The read: Under 206.5 passing yards. He cleared it 29% of the time behind a better line, and now he faces the fourth-heaviest blitz in football on a Falcons team that throws 5 points less than its situations call for. Under 32.5 attempts (11 of 14) is the same bet in a quieter market. The touchdown Over at +194 is the one plus-money piece on him: 7 of 14 is 50% against a 34% price, and it survives the Week 1 haircut only because the gap is that wide. Take one side of him or the other, not both: a 200-yard game and two touchdowns can happen, but a blitzed Tua game usually looks like 175 and one.
Bijan Robinson · RB · Falcons
Who: 24, the best running back in the NFC South and now the only one Atlanta trusts near the goal line.
What he does: Everything. 17 carries and 5 catches a game, 0.88 rushing yards over expected per carry, the best of any back in this game. Allgeier took the goal line (10 carries inside the 5, 5 touchdowns) and Allgeier is gone.
Last year: 86.9 rushing yards a game but a median of 76; over 76.5 in 8 of 17 (the big games: 143, 170, 142, 195). 48.2 receiving yards a game, median 39; over 36.5 in 11 of 17. Five or more catches in 9 of 17. Scored in 9 of 17. 135 rushing plus receiving a game, median 124. Last five: 96.6 rushing.
The book says: 76.5 rushing yards (75.5 to 77.5). 36.5 receiving yards (35.5 at DraftKings, 39.5 at one book). Over 4.5 receptions +113 at DraftKings. 18.5 carries (17.5 at ESPN Bet). Anytime TD −135 at BetMGM. 117.5 rushing plus receiving.
The read: Over 36.5 receiving yards. Eleven of seventeen at a 52% price, and Tua's whole game is the short throw to the back. The rushing line sits at his median and Pittsburgh's run defense was ordinary (17th in yards to backs); that is a coin. The touchdown at −135 says 57% and he scored in 53% of his games, but that was with Allgeier taking half the goal-line carries. With those carries his, the price is about right. Buy the catches, not the yards.
Drake London · WR · Falcons
Who: 25, the eighth pick in 2022, paid $35 million a year this offseason, and Atlanta's red-zone target of choice: 16 looks inside the 20, 7 touchdowns.
What he does: Runs a 10.8-yard route with 2.6 yards of separation and catches 61%. Big, physical, wins in traffic, and he is now catching from a quarterback who throws 2 yards short of the marker.
Last year (12 games): 76.6 yards a game, median 66.5. Over 64.5 in 6 of 12. Six or more catches in 6 of 12. Scored in 5 of 12. Longest catch over 21.5 yards in 6 of 12.
The book says: 64.5 receiving yards (61.5 to 65.5). 5.5 receptions. Anytime TD +225 at Fliff. Longest reception 21.5.
The read: Anytime TD at +225. He scored in 42% of his games and owns Atlanta's red-zone targets; the price says 31%. Pittsburgh allowed 7 receiver touchdowns on 45 deep throws and 1 on 91 intermediate ones, and London lives at 10 to 19, so the matchup half is a fork. The Week 1 receiver-touchdown rate (21%, 14%) is the bar this one has to clear, and the receipt clears it by a nose, not a mile. Everything else on his card is a coin at the line.
Kyle Pitts · TE · Falcons
Who: 25, the fourth pick in 2021, finally paid, and the tight end who finished last season on fire.
What he does: 7.2-yard routes, 3.5 yards of separation, catches 75%, and almost nothing after the catch (−0.84 yards versus expected). A big possession receiver wearing a tight end's number.
Last year: 54.6 yards a game, median 57. Over 43.5 in 9 of 17. Last five: 77.4, with a 166. Five or more catches in 9 of 17. Scored in 3 of 17.
The book says: 43.5 receiving yards (42.5 at one book). Over 4.5 receptions +114 at BetParx. Anytime TD +325.
The read: Fade the touchdown, and lean the catches. Three touchdowns in seventeen games is a 5-catch, 55-yard player who does not score, and +325 (24% implied) is more than his 18% deserves even with Pittsburgh's tight-end leak at 10 to 19 (three scores on 29 throws). The receptions at +114 are the play: 9 of 17 at a 47% price, into a defense that let tight ends catch 76% of 101 short throws and allowed the fifth-most tight-end yards in the league.
Aaron Rodgers · QB · Steelers
Who: 42. Four MVPs, one ring, and a wild-card loss in January in which he threw for 146 yards.
What he does: Gets the ball out faster than anyone (2.59 seconds) and shorter than anyone (3.03 yards under the sticks). A blitz does nothing to him (−0.009 a play blitzed, −0.006 not). The line in front of him allowed the least pressure in the NFL.
Last year (16 games): 207.6 passing yards, median 211. Over 212.5 in 8 of 16, with a hot finish: 284, 224, 266, 168, 294. Two or more touchdown passes in 6 of 16. Threw an interception in 4 of 16. Twenty-one or more completions in 10 of 16. Attempts 31.1, median 32.
The book says: 212.5 passing yards (210.5 to 215.5). Over 1.5 touchdown passes +135 at Bally; Under −154 at Hard Rock. Over 0.5 interceptions +162; Under −208. 31.5 attempts. Over 20.5 completions +105 at Hard Rock, −125 elsewhere.
The read: Over 20.5 completions at +105. Ten of sixteen at a 49% price, from the quarterback who throws shortest and fastest, behind the best pass protection in football, against a blitz that lost 40% of its sacks. The yards are fair at 212.5. The touchdowns are a coin the book has priced correctly on both sides. The interception Under at −208 has the receipt (12 of 16 clean) but not the price.
DK Metcalf · WR · Steelers
Who: 28, the fastest big receiver in the league, and the one Steeler who turns a short Rodgers throw into a long gain.
What he does: Runs a 9.9-yard route, catches 60%, and adds 2.77 yards after the catch above expectation, the most of any receiver on either roster by a mile. Took 31.6% of Pittsburgh's air yards.
Last year (15 games): 56.7 yards, median 49. Over 48.5 in 8 of 15. Four or more catches in 8 of 15. Scored in 7 of 15. 13 red-zone targets, 3 touchdowns. Playoff game: 2 catches, 42 yards.
The book says: 48.5 receiving yards (45.5 at Fanatics). 3.5 receptions (4.5 at Fanatics, +165). Anytime TD +225 at Fanatics. Longest reception 20.5.
The read: Anytime TD at +225. He scored in 47% of his games and the price says 31%. Atlanta's man coverage (Cover 1 on 165 snaps) was good, and their deep coverage was fifth-best, so this is not a matchup bet. It is a role bet: Metcalf is the only Steeler who can score from 40 yards on a 9-yard throw, and Rodgers only throws 9-yard throws. The yards at 45.5 (Fanatics) are a mild lean Over (9 of 15 cleared 45.5). The Week 1 bar for receiver touchdowns is the caution; the gap is wide enough.
Jaylen Warren · RB · Steelers
Who: 27, undrafted, the Steelers' starting back, and now sharing with a 1,000-yard rusher who just arrived.
What he does: Runs into stacked boxes more than anyone in this game (31.8% of carries against 8 or more defenders) and still makes 0.8 yards over expected a carry. 14 carries inside the 5, 4 touchdowns.
Last year (16 games): 59.9 rushing yards, median 57. Over 42.5 in 11 of 16. Eleven or more carries in 13 of 16. 80.7 rushing plus receiving, median 67.5; over 59.5 in 12 of 16. Scored in 6 of 16. Playoff game: 12 carries, 43 yards.
The book says: 42.5 rushing yards (43.5 at one book). Over 10.5 carries −105 at Hard Rock (11.5 at DraftKings). 59.5 rushing plus receiving at DraftKings (65.5 elsewhere). Anytime TD +150 at Fanatics. Over 2.5 receptions −114.
The read: Over 10.5 carries at −105 and Over 42.5 yards. Thirteen of sixteen and eleven of sixteen, against prices near 52%, into a run defense that allowed the tenth-most yards to backs and just lost its 105-tackle linebacker. The counter is Dowdle, who carried 16 times a game as Carolina's starter and is priced at the same 42.5. Two backs at 42.5 apiece is the market saying it does not know the split. Warren's line is the one with a season of receipts behind it. Week 1 running back Overs cashed 27% last September; the gap here is 17 to 30 points, which is why it stays on the card. The touchdown is fair.
Michael Pittman · WR · Steelers
Who: 28, six years a Colt, paid $17.5 million a year to be the second receiver in an offense that threw for 208 yards a game.
What he does: Runs an 8-yard route, gets 3 yards of separation, catches 72%. A possession receiver for a possession quarterback.
Last year (16 games, Indianapolis): 48.3 yards, median 39.5. Over 39.5 in 8 of 16. Five or more catches in 9 of 16. Scored in 7 of 16, all seven in his first twelve games, none in the last five. Last five: 33.2 yards.
The book says: 39.5 receiving yards (37.5 at one book). Receptions 4.5 at most books; Over 4.5 is +125 at Hard Rock; FanDuel posts 3.5. Anytime TD +300 at Fanatics.
The read: Over 4.5 receptions at +125. Nine of sixteen at a 44% price, for a receiver whose whole game is the 8-yard catch, from a quarterback whose whole game is the 8-yard throw. The touchdown at +300 (44% of his games, 25% implied) is the dart with the caution attached: new team, and zero scores in his last five. Atlanta allowed 7 touchdowns on 137 short receiver throws, so the band is not the problem; the November-December cold streak is.
Part 6 · Between the lines
Atlanta's pass rush is a photograph of a team that does not exist. The 9.05% sack rate, fourth in football, is the number every preview will quote. Pearce (10.5 sacks) and Walker (5.5) are on injured reserve. Orhorhoro (3.5) is a Jaguar. Elliss (3.5) is a Saint. That is 23 of 57 sacks, and the two players most likely to grow. Against the offensive line that allowed the least pressure in the league, the blitz rate that made Atlanta's defense interesting is now mostly risk. Rodgers has seen a blitz or two.
Two backs, one line, and a job nobody has yet. Warren and Dowdle are both priced at 42.5 rushing yards. Kenneth Gainwell caught 77 passes for Pittsburgh last year, third-most on the team, and had 17 red-zone targets. He is in Tampa. Somebody catches those balls. Dowdle caught 40 in Carolina; Warren caught 40 here. Warren's Over 2.5 receptions at −114 and Dowdle's Over 1.5 at −135 are both bets that Gainwell's job lands on that player. The receipts say Dowdle's is the cleaner one: he caught two or more in 10 of 13 games as a starter.
Darnell Washington has a yardage line of 16.5 and a contract of $10.5 million a year through 2029. The money says the Steelers think he has a job. The number says the market does not. Last year in eleven logged games: two or more catches in 9 of 11, over 16.5 yards in 7 of 11, longest catch over 11.5 yards in 9 of 12. Jonnu Smith's 57 targets left for Green Bay. Over 1.5 receptions at −137 (82% of his games, 58% implied) is the quiet bet on that job. Freiermuth's Over 2.5 receptions at −118 (11 of 15) is the loud one, and Atlanta let tight ends catch 76% of short throws.
Tua's touchdown line is 0.5 at DraftKings. Not 1.5. The book will not post the normal number on a quarterback starting for a new team, which is the same tell as a missing yardage line: the market does not know what he is. He threw at least one touchdown in 10 of 14 games last year. Over 0.5 at −125 is a 71% thing at a 56% price, and it is the safest Tua bet on the board because it does not care how many yards he throws for.
The blitz question is the game. Pittsburgh blitzed 36.8% last year under Tomlin. McCarthy is the new head coach, and nobody knows what he keeps. If the rate holds, the receipt above says Tua's line is 20 yards too high. If it drops to 25%, Tua's non-blitzed numbers (66% completions, +0.08 a play) make 206.5 a fair line. Everything on the Falcons side of the card is a bet that the habit survives the coach.
The opening-week bar, in one table. DraftKings Over props, settled, both seasons:
QB passing TDs · 2024: 22% · 2025: 29%
QB passing yards · 2024: 33% · 2025: 42%
RB rushing yards · 2025: 27%
TE receiving yards · 2024: 31% · 2025: 41%
WR receiving yards · 2024: 49% · 2025: 49%
Every quarterback yardage Under in this piece has that table behind it. Every Over on it cleared the bar by a gap of 12 points or more, or it was left off.
Part 7 · How Sunday probably goes
Pittsburgh's plan fits on a napkin: run it 30 times behind the best pass-blocking line in the league, let Rodgers throw 8-yard passes to Pittman and Metcalf in 2.6 seconds, and blitz Tua until he throws it to somebody in black. Atlanta's plan is Bijan on 25 touches and London in the red zone, with Tua asked to do as little as possible.
First half, Atlanta's plan works better than Pittsburgh's. Bijan takes a screen 31 yards, London wins a jump ball from the 8 against Porter, and Pittsburgh's blitz gets home once and misses twice, the second miss a 24-yard Pitts catch down the seam against Cover 2. Pittsburgh answers with a 12-play drive that is nine runs and three Rodgers completions, Warren from the 3. Boswell adds a field goal. Halftime 10-7 Falcons, Tua 9 of 14 for 88.
Second half, Pittsburgh stops blitzing and starts winning. Watt beats Jawaan Taylor clean on a four-man rush, Tua throws it late to Dotson and Ramsey has it. Warren converts three third downs on a drive that ends with Metcalf running a 9-yard slant 26 yards for the score. Atlanta gets a field goal. Tua's last real drive ends on a fourth-and-4 blitz that arrives.
Steelers 20, Falcons 16. Total 36, six under the number. Tua: 178 yards, one touchdown, one interception. Rodgers: 22 completions, 205 yards. Warren: 14 carries, 61 yards.
Part 8 · The plays
Each one: the plain reason, then the receipt.
Under Tua Tagovailoa 206.5 passing yards (−110, DraftKings). He falls apart against the blitz and Pittsburgh blitzes. Receipt: 4 of 14 over; blitzed, 55% completions and a sack on 11.6% of dropbacks; Pittsburgh blitzed 36.8%, fourth-most.
Over Jaylen Warren 10.5 carries (−105, Hard Rock) and Over 42.5 rushing yards (−110, BetParx). The lead back into a middling run defense that lost its best tackler. Receipt: 13 of 16 and 11 of 16; Atlanta allowed the tenth-most rushing yards to backs. Dowdle is the counter.
Over Aaron Rodgers 20.5 completions (+105, Hard Rock). Fastest release, shortest throws, best protection in the league. Receipt: 10 of 16; Atlanta's pass rush lost 23 of its 57 sacks.
DK Metcalf anytime TD (+225, Fanatics). Forty-seven percent at a 31% price. Receipt: 7 of 15, and 2.77 yards after the catch above expectation, most in the game.
Over Pat Freiermuth 2.5 receptions (−118, DraftKings). Jonnu Smith's 57 targets left. Receipt: 11 of 15; Atlanta let tight ends catch 76% of 101 short throws.
Over Bijan Robinson 36.5 receiving yards (−110, ESPN Bet). Tua throws to the back. Receipt: 11 of 17.
Over Kyle Pitts 4.5 receptions (+114, BetParx). Receipt: 9 of 17 at a 47% price; Pittsburgh allowed the fifth-most tight-end yards in football.
Small: Under Tua 32.5 attempts (11 of 14, and the slowest-paced opponent in the league). Tua Over 0.5 passing TDs (−125, DraftKings), 10 of 14. Over Darnell Washington 1.5 receptions (−137), 9 of 11.
Darts: Drake London anytime (+225, Fliff), 5 of 12 with 7 red-zone scores on 16 targets. Michael Pittman anytime (+300, Fanatics), 7 of 16 with a five-game drought at the end. Tua Over 1.5 touchdown passes (+194, FanDuel), 7 of 14. Michael Pittman Over 4.5 receptions (+125, Hard Rock), 9 of 16.
Passes: Rodgers's yards and touchdowns (fair both ways). Bijan's rushing yards (line at his median). Bijan anytime at −135 (fair once Allgeier's carries are his). Kyle Pitts anytime (3 of 17). Dowdle anytime at +145 (6 of 17). Boswell 7.5 points at −137 (10 of 17, priced right).
Game: Under 42.5. The two shallowest-throwing quarterbacks in the league, the fifth-slowest offense, a drizzle, and a 2024 meeting that produced 28 points. Steelers −3.5, light: the better line, the better coach on this day, and the quarterback who does not care about the blitz against the one who does.
The stack: Under 42.5 + Tua Under 206.5 + Warren Over 42.5. One story: Pittsburgh runs, blitzes, and keeps the clock moving while Tua throws short into a wall. Lotto: Metcalf anytime + London anytime + Pittman anytime.
Part 9 · What to watch
Watch Tua's first third down. Count the rushers. Five or six means McCarthy kept Tomlin's habit and everything on the Falcons side of the card is live. Four means the new coach changed the one thing this preview is built on, and Tua's Under becomes a coin.
Watch who takes Atlanta's first snap inside the 5. If it is Bijan, the −135 is a fair price and Allgeier's job went where it should. If it is Brian Robinson, Atlanta's goal line is a committee and every Bijan touchdown price on the board is wrong.
And watch the Steelers' second back. When Dowdle comes in on third down and catches the ball, Gainwell's 77 receptions found a home, and the Warren carries Over is exactly right for the wrong reason.
You will know all three inside the first quarter. That is more than most people at Acrisure will know.
Atlanta's fourth-ranked pass rush is missing 23 sacks and its two first-round picks. Pittsburgh's fourth-ranked blitz rate belongs to a coach who no longer works there. Which one shows up Sunday: the Falcons' rush without its rushers, or the Steelers' blitz without its author?
Built from 2025 game logs including the playoffs, full-season play-by-play by throw depth and position (17 games), charted blitz and pressure rates, coverage shells, red-zone and goal-line counts, NGS separation, route depth and air yards to the sticks, current rosters and reserve lists, and the twelve-book board as of Tuesday 6:51 PM ET. No practice report had been filed for either team when this was written.
Model output, not financial advice. Bet responsibly.